Rates are NOT rising- well, not the way you think - UPDATED
Joel Olson • July 10, 2017
UPDATE: The Bank of Canada has increased their overnight rate to .75% as of July 12, 2017.
Despite many articles predicting interest rates going up. They are not. Well, not in the way you think.
This week the Bank of Canada will meet, as they do several times over the year to determine if its necessary to
increase the Bank of Canada Prime Rate. They have not done so since 2010. Although, it is yet to be confirmed,
there is a possibility that this could in fact be the time they do exactly that.
The prime rate effects every variable rate mortgage, line of credit, investment in Canada. This alone is one of the
major reasons that this decision is made with extreme caution. Essentially, in a very broad view the Bank of
Canada rate is related to how much a bank pays to obtain and access funds. The bank then has their own prime
rate that is directly linked to the Bank of Canada. Almost 100% of the time these prime rates match. However, last
time the prime rate went down, it worthy to note that the banks didn’t pass on the discount right away, and they still
do not pass on the full discount. The major bank world of Canada is small though, so there is very little room for
difference between the major banks on these things, without the prospect of losing instant market share.
So, let's then assume that prime rate is increased, and the banks raise their prime rate to match that. That is likely
what would happen. This means that if you have a line of credit or a variable rate mortgage that your interest rate
will increase. The Bank of Canada hasn’t increased prime beyond .25% in over 25 years. So, let’s prepare for
doomsday, if you have a $500,000 mortgage, your payment would in the most extreme examples increase by $62
per month. Obviously, as balances will be even lower for most people, that increase will be even less. To further
frame this, it is a little know fact, that many variable mortgages do not increase the payments. This means that
your payment remains the same, but the ratio of principal to interest changes, so the risk of a rising payment is
eliminated. The other thing to remember is that with a higher prime rate, it's often a case that lender will create even
bigger discounts on variables.
But- why bother? Still seems risky to you. The value of having a variable still will outweigh a fixed rate in many
situations, here is a great rundown of that, by a great mortgage broker friend of mine:
In any case, the world of interest rates has changed a lot in the past twelve months. Be worried of anyone quoting
you a mortgage rate after a brief two minute conversation. There is much to consider for your life, situation, future
and also many terms on mortgages that restrict you in a way that it is unlikely you would even ask.
Ready to Buy Your First Home? Here’s How to Know for Sure Buying your first home is exciting—but it’s also a major financial decision. So how can you tell if you’re truly ready to take that leap into homeownership? Whether you’re confident or still unsure, these four signs are solid indicators that you’re on the right path: 1. You’ve Got Your Down Payment and Closing Costs in Place To purchase a home in Canada, you’ll need at least 5% of the purchase price as a down payment. In addition, plan for around 1.5% to 2% of the home’s value to cover closing costs like legal fees, insurance, and adjustments. If you’ve managed to save this on your own, that’s a great sign of financial discipline. If you're receiving help from a family member through a gifted down payment , that works too—as long as the paperwork is in order. Either way, having these funds ready shows you’re prepared for the upfront costs of homeownership. 2. Your Credit Profile Tells a Good Story Lenders want to know how you manage debt. Before they approve you for a mortgage, they’ll review your credit history. What they typically like to see: At least two active credit accounts (trade lines) , like a credit card or loan Each with a minimum limit of $2,000 Open and active for at least 2 years Even if your credit isn’t perfect, don’t panic. There may still be options, such as using a co-signer or working on a credit improvement plan with a mortgage expert. 3. Your Income Can Support Homeownership—Comfortably A steady income is essential, but not all income is treated equally. If you’re full-time and past probation , you’re in a strong position. If you’re self-employed, on contract, or rely on variable income like tips or commissions, you’ll generally need a two-year history to qualify. A general rule: housing costs (mortgage, taxes, utilities) should stay under 35% of your gross monthly income . That leaves plenty of room for other living expenses, savings, and—yes—some fun too. 4. You’ve Talked to a Mortgage Professional Let’s be real—there’s a lot of info out there about buying a home. Google searches and TikToks can only take you so far. If you're serious about buying, speaking with a mortgage professional is the most effective next step. Why? Because you'll: Get pre-approved (and know what price range you're working with) Understand your loan options and the qualification process Build a game plan that suits your timeline and financial goals The Bottom Line: Being “ready” to buy a home isn’t just about how much you want it—it’s about being financially prepared, credit-ready, and backed by expert advice. If you’re thinking about homeownership, let’s chat. I’d love to help you understand your options, crunch the numbers, and build a plan that gets you confidently across the finish line—keys in hand.
Bank of Canada maintains policy rate at 2¼%. FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario January 28, 2026 The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. The outlook for the global and Canadian economies is little changed relative to the projection in the October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). However, the outlook is vulnerable to unpredictable US trade policies and geopolitical risks. Economic growth in the United States continues to outpace expectations and is projected to remain solid, driven by AI-related investment and consumer spending. Tariffs are pushing up US inflation, although their effect is expected to fade gradually later this year. In the euro area, growth has been supported by activity in service sectors and will get additional support from fiscal policy. China’s GDP growth is expected to slow gradually, as weakening domestic demand offsets strength in exports. Overall, the Bank expects global growth to average about 3% over the projection horizon. Global financial conditions have remained accommodative overall. Recent weakness in the US dollar has pushed the Canadian dollar above 72 cents, roughly where it had been since the October MPR. Oil prices have been fluctuating in response to geopolitical events and, going forward, are assumed to be slightly below the levels in the October report. US trade restrictions and uncertainty continue to disrupt growth in Canada. After a strong third quarter, GDP growth in the fourth quarter likely stalled. Exports continue to be buffeted by US tariffs, while domestic demand appears to be picking up. Employment has risen in recent months. Still, the unemployment rate remains elevated at 6.8% and relatively few businesses say they plan to hire more workers. Economic growth is projected to be modest in the near term as population growth slows and Canada adjusts to US protectionism. In the projection, consumer spending holds up and business investment strengthens gradually, with fiscal policy providing some support. The Bank projects growth of 1.1% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027, broadly in line with the October projection. A key source of uncertainty is the upcoming review of the Canada-US-Mexico Agreement. CPI inflation picked up in December to 2.4%, boosted by base-year effects linked to last winter’s GST/HST holiday. Excluding the effect of changes in taxes, inflation has been slowing since September. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation have eased from 3% in October to around 2½% in December. Inflation was 2.1% in 2025 and the Bank expects inflation to stay close to the 2% target over the projection period, with trade-related cost pressures offset by excess supply. Monetary policy is focused on keeping inflation close to the 2% target while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment. Governing Council judges the current policy rate remains appropriate, conditional on the economy evolving broadly in line with the outlook we published today. However, uncertainty is heightened and we are monitoring risks closely. If the outlook changes, we are prepared to respond. The Bank is committed to ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval. Information note The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is March 18, 2026. The Bank’s next MPR will be released on April 29, 2026. Read the January 28th, 2026 Monetary Report
